About predictions: (1) There are still lots of unknown numbers plugged into any calculation about public health. (2) Any calculation necessarily ignores other aspects happening simultaneously with what the calculation calculates is happening. (3) You can also, always, do this ancient calculation: Plan for the worst (do NOT neglect Murphy’s Law), AND hope for the best.
“Before 1992, the names ‘Hillary’ and ‘Hilary’ had been increasing in popularity for several decades. After 1992, however, their popularity dropped suddenly 10-fold.” – explains Stefano Ghirlanda who is Professor of Psychology, Biology, and Anthropology, Brooklyn College, CUNY, and Founder and fellow, Centre for the Study of Cultural Evolution, Stockholm University. With this in mind, […]
Two decades ago, Rolf Zwaan — who likely at the time did not predict that he would one day be awarded an Ig Nobel Prize for an experiment involving the Eiffel Tower — published a study, with colleagues, about people generating predictions while watching the James Bond movie Moonraker. The study was and is: “Generating predictive […]