A new standard way to measure the threshold of personal tragedy

Some skilled psychologists see big consequences aborning in seemingly trivial things. Here’s an example. This particular seemingly trivial thing happens — or doesn’t happen — at online dating sites. The researchers describe it in a quick phrase: “as indicated by fewer first visits to their dating profiles“. This is big:  a newly-recognized threshold for assessing personal […]

Guess Bayesian-Bayesian to invent extraterrestrial stats

Today’s convoluted statistics exercise: Use Bayesian statistical methods to estimate the probability that Bayesian statistical methods will be invented by life that arises elsewhere in the universe. BACKGROUND: The Physics arXiv blog explains everything you need to know to make this estimate: The Drake equation is one of those rare mathematical beasts that has leaked into […]

Improbable Research