Mini-AIR

mini-Annals of Improbable Research ("mini-AIR")

March 2026, issue number 2026-003. ISSN 1076-500X.

improbable.com/publications/newsletter-mini-air/

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Research that makes people LAUGH, then THINK.

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01 TABLE OF CONTENTMENT

02 IN THE MAGAZINE ITSELF: Special STRESS

03 Gamblers' Fallacy Fallacy

04 The 2026 Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony — Date & Location

05 APRIL/MAY: The 2026 Ig Nobel EuroTour

06 LIMERICK CHALLENGE: El Greco Fallacy Fallacy

07 Question Question Winners

08 MORE IMPROBABLE: Brains & Bots, Pancake, Oranges

09 The Owl and Lark Fallacy Fallacy

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20 SOME IMPROBABLE EVENTS

30 — Subscribe to the Actual Magazine! (*)

31 — How to start or stop receiving this little newsletter (*)

32 — Contact Info (*)

33 — Standard Gobbledegook (*)

Items marked (*) are reprinted in every issue.

This little newsletter you are reading at the moment (mini-AIR) is overflow detritus from the magazine Annals of Improbable Research (AIR).

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02 IN THE MAGAZINE ITSELF: Special STRESS

The special STRESS issue (32:2) is out and about, and fretting in fun ways with subscribers. The table of contents and a preview are at payhip.com/b/R2xJD

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SUBSCRIBE to the MAGAZINE, or get BACK ISSUES

https://improbable.com/magazine-2/

Tables of Contents: improbable.com/magazine-2/

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03 Gamblers' Fallacy Fallacy

This month's quasi-haphazardly selected research report of the month (QHSRROTM) is:

"The Gambler’s Fallacy Fallacy (Fallacy)," Marko Kovic and Silje Kristiansen, Journal of Risk Research, vol. 22, no. 3, 2019, pp. 291-302.

doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2017.1378248

The authors explain:

"The gambler’s fallacy is the irrational belief that prior outcomes in a series of events affect the probability of a future outcome, even though the events in question are independent and identically distributed. In this paper, we argue that in the standard account of the gambler’s fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy fallacy can arise: the irrational belief that all beliefs pertaining to the probabilities of sequences of outcomes constitute the gambler’s fallacy, when, in fact, they do not....

However, we have to be careful not to fall prey to a variant of the gambler’s fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy fallacy (fallacy), in which we do not calculate odds for the probabilities of sequences that matter, but rather simply believe that the raw probability for the occurrence of a sequence of outcomes is the probability for the last outcome in that sequence."

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04 The 2026 Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony — Date & Location

WHEN/WHERE

The 36th First Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony will happen in ZURICH, SWITZERLAND, on THURSDAY EVENING, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026.

TICKETS

Tickets to attend the ceremony will become obtainable online, on MAY 12.

AND THE WEBCAST

The ceremony will also be webcast. Webcast-watching parties will happen in many places. Please feel free to organize your own!

INFO

Some info about why the ceremony is moving to Europe, about the future of the ceremony, and about some of its history:

improbable.com/2026/03/10/the-ig-nobel-prize-ceremony-is-moving-to-europe-after-35-years-in-the-usa/

improbable.com/2026/03/15/el-pais-interview-about-the-ig-nobel-prizes-moving-to-europe/

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05 APRIL/MAY: The 2026 Ig Nobel EuroTour

Coming in April and May, this year's Ig Nobel EuroTour will include events in GERMANY, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, GREECE, and THE NETHERLANDS.

Details, some concrete, a few incipient, are on our events listing page

improbable.com/upcoming-events

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06 LIMERICK CHALLENGE: El Greco Fallacy Fallacy

This month's RESEARCH LIMERICK challenge — Devise a pleasing limerick that encapsulates this study:

" 'The El Greco Fallacy' Fallacy," Matthew P. Simunovic, JAMA Ophthalmology, vol. 132, no. 4, 2014, pp. 491-494.

doi.org/10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2013.5684

The author explains:

"To what extent does an artist’s work represent his or her perceptual world, and to what extent can attributes of his or her work be ascribed to sensory defects? These issues lie at the center of a conjecture more than a century old, which has been termed the El Greco fallacy. The El Greco fallacy posits that the elongation evident in El Greco’s art reflects an underlying perceptual elongation of objects caused by astigmatism. The 'logical' refutation of this theory argues that any perceptual elongation that El Greco might have experienced as a result of astigmatism would have caused not only his subjects to be elongated but also his canvas. Hence, it should have been unnecessary for him to elongate his paintings to match his perception."

Send your perfictly formed, perfectly pleasing limerick to:

FALLACY FALLACY LIMERICK COMPETITION

c/o MARC aaattt IMPROBABLE dddooottt COM

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07 Question Question Winners

The judges have chosen co-winners in last month's Competition, which asked for a limerick to explain this study:

"Categorising Question Question Relationships in the Pósa Method," Dániel Katona, Teaching Mathematics and Computer Science, vol. 18, no. 3, 2020, pp. 91-100.

doi.org/10.5485/TMCS.2020.0495

Winning limerickicist JOANNE E. LEARY writes:

What kind of question is asked

Is the thing with which I am tasked.

It seems that, to me,

There can only be three;

Though the choices appear rather vast.

This month's take, from our LIMERICK LAUREATE, MARTIN EIGER:

There's no beaker, no test tube, no flask.

Instruction in math is the task.

So here's a suggestion.

If you have a question

In Hungary, go ahead, ask.

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08 MORE IMPROBABLE: Brains & Bots, Pancake, Oranges

Recent improbable research bits you may have missed...

BLOG (improbable.com):

• Cutler Cutting a Pancake with an Exotic Knife

• From Your Brain, Please, Not Your Bot

• How Many Slices Does a Mandarin Have?

• …and much more

SUBSTACK: (improbablestuff.substack.com)

MASTODON: @MarcAbrahams@mstdn.science

FACEBOOK: facebook.com/improbableresearch

PATREON: patreon.com/ImprobableResearch

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09 The Owl and Lark Fallacy Fallacy

This month's Other Haphazardly-Selected Research Report (OQHSRROTM) of the month is:

"The Fallacy Fallacy: From the Owl of Minerva to the Lark of Arete," Andrew Aberdein, Argumentation, vol. 37, pp. 269–280.

doi.org/10.1007/s10503-023-09595-9

The author explains:

"The fallacy fallacy is either the misdiagnosis of fallacy or the supposition that the conclusion of a fallacy must be a falsehood. This paper explores the relevance of these and related errors of reasoning for the appraisal of arguments, especially within virtue theories of argumentation. In particular, the fallacy fallacy exemplifies the Owl of Minerva problem, whereby tools devised to understand a norm make possible new ways of violating the norm. Fallacies are such tools and so are vices. Hence a similar problem arises with argumentative vices. Fortunately, both instances of the problem have a common remedy."

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TREAT YOURSELF TO (MUCH) MORE IMPROBABLE STUFF.

SUBCRIBE TO THE (PDF) MAGAZINE!

improbable.com/magazine-2/

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20 SOME IMPROBABLE EVENTS

· IG NOBEL EUROTOUR

· Berlin, Germany — Apr 13, 2026

· U Duesberg-Essen, Germany — Apr 17, 2026

· Lund U, Sweden — Apr 21, 2026

· Malmö, Sweden — Apr 22, 2026

· EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland — Apr 23, 2026

· Zurich, Switzerland — Apr 24, 2026

· Athens, Greece, — Apr 28, 2026

· The Netherlands — Details To Be Announced

· Dead Duck Day, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, June 5, 2026

· TICKETS GO ON SALE to attend the 36th First Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony — May 12, 2026

· 36th FIRST ANNUAL IG NOBEL PRIZE CEREMONY, Zurich, Switzerland — Sep 3, 2026

· Falling Walls, Berlin, Germany — November 2026

For details and additional events, see: improbable.com/upcoming-events/

If your institution would like to host an event,

please get in touch with us at:

MARC aaattt IMPROBABLE dddooottt COM

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30 — Subscribe to the Actual Magazine! (*)

The Annals of Improbable Research is a 6-issues-per-year magazine,

in PDF form. It's packed with research that makes people laugh, then think.

improbable.com/publications/magazine

SUBSCRIPTIONS ($40 for six issues)

BACK ISSUES ($8 each)

(mini-AIR, the thing you are reading at this moment, is but a tiny, free-floating quasi-appendix to the actual magazine.)

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31 — How to start or stop receiving this newsletter (*)

This newsletter, Mini-AIR, is just a (free!) tiny monthly *supplement* to the big, bold six-times-a-year magazine Annals of Improbable Research.

To SUBSCRIBE or UNSUBSCRIBE to mini-AIR, see the links at the end of this email.

ARCHIVES: improbable.com/publications/newsletter-mini-air/

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32 — CONTACT INFO (*)

Annals of Improbable Research (AIR)

improbable.com

EDITORIAL: MARC aaattt IMPROBABLE dddooottt COM

SUBSCRIPTION QUESTIONS: subscriptions AT improbable.com

Cambridge, MA, USA

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33 — Standard Gobbledegook (*)

EDITOR: Marc Abrahams

CO-CONSPIRATORS: Kees Moeliker, Alice Shirrell Kaswell, Gary Dryfoos, Nan Swift, Stephen Drew

PROOFREADER: Ambient Happenstance

AUTHORITY FIGURES: Nobel Laureates Dudley Herschbach, Sheldon Glashow, Richard Roberts

Key words: improbable research, science humor, Ig Nobel, AIR, the

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