Who Will Win the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Eric Schulman, who used statistical methods to predict who would win the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, now predicts what will happen in 2008. He and a colleague offer a full report. It begins:
Who Will Win the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election?
by Eric Schulman, Alexandria, Virginia
and
Daniel Debowy, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New YorkAbstract: Our 2003 algorithm for determining the winners of United States presidential elections correctly determined the winner of each of the 55 U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 2004. We apply the algorithm to 44 Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election and find that the Democrats have nine tickets with electabilities greater than 150, whereas the Republicans have five tickets with electabilities greater than 150. The most electable ticket, with an electability of 264, has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential candidate. The next most electable ticket, with an electability of 260, has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. as the vice presidential candidate….